Keenan 411

There is Fear in Them Buyers

Buyers are afraid today.   They are afraid of spending too much money.  They are afraid of making the wrong decision.  They are afraid of making a mistake.  They are afraid of screwing up.    Fear is a prevalent emotion in todays selling environment.

Buyers are afraid because things are uncertain.  There is less room for mistakes.  The economy is tight.  There are fewer resources to go around.  People are expected to do more with less.  With fewer resources, the costs of mistakes are much higher and no one wants to be “that guy.”   The one who screwed up.

Selling in an environment of fear takes a lot more effort than selling in an environment of optimism.   Buyers don’t take risks, they want guarantees, prices have to be rock bottom, they don’t want to hear about the conceptual, they want to feel it and touch it and it better have a meauserable, quantifiable return.  There is no such thing as a pet project in fear based selling environments.

To make progress in a fear based environment requires, knowledge, trust, relationships, information and gumption.

When buyers are afraid, the more you know about their environment, their goals, their motivations, and their needs the better off you will be.  When buyers are afraid, they need to trust those around them more than ever, being in the inner-circle is critical.  It’s almost impossible to sell without the relationship.  When buyers are afraid, information is critical; information about the market, the competition, government regulation, creative use cases and more.  You can’t have too much information when buyers are afraid.  But, more than anything, when buyers are afraid YOU can’t be afraid.  When buyers are afraid, they are looking for a leader.  They want someone to make them feel safe.  They want someone with confidence, someone who can do what they can’t — look the challenges right in the eye and not shudder.   Selling to buyers who are afraid takes a sales person who is fearless.

Buyers are afraid.  They are afraid of losing and to the fearless sales person that’s a huge opportunity.

Don’t be afraid, your clients are afraid enough already.

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A Must Do List not a To Do List

I am busy.  I get pulled in a million different directions.  What makes it worse is I am a spurt worker.  I can’t just sit and do single task for long periods of time.  I have to mix it up.  On top of it all, I can be a bit ADD.   All of this makes it difficult to stay focused and get things done.

I’m never going to be a task master.  I’ve come to accept that.  But, not getting stuff done, or forgetting something until last minute drives me crazy. To become more effective I came up the Must Do List or what I call “Come Hell or High Water” list.  The difference between a “MUST do list” vs a “To do list” is to do lists have little priority and accountability. To do lists are just that to do lists.  They don’t focus on much and get unwieldy.  Mine would just get longer and longer and I then I’d stop using them.   So, I came up with the MUST do list.  A must do list is a list of things that have to get done that day. Must do lists incorporate accountability, urgency and most importantly simplicity.  There is no thinking when it comes to a must do list, no determining wich task to do first or which to push till tomorrow, you just do everything on the list today, period.

My must do list is a list of the 6 or 7 of the most important things I have to get done that day.  They are the actions or tasks most critical to success. They are never trivial tasks like answer email.  They are things that move the ball, that added up get me closer to success.  My must do list is built on the premise that no matter what happens, my day is NOT completed until everything on the list is checked off.  No cheating, no quitting, no excuses.

The must do list is great because it keeps me from getting sucked into email, and other unimportant stuff.  It mitigates the distractions.  When I have 6-7 things that I have to get done to complete my day, they become my priority not all the distractions.   A good must do list keeps me on track, gets the important things done and keeps the distractions from sabotaging the big picture.

To do lists are hollow.  They don’t have focus.   If you focus on what’s critical, if you get done what has to get done, the rest takes care of itself.

My “must do list” has been huge for my productivity.   How do you stay on track?

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What Happens When Immigrants No Longer Want To Come To America?

Brad Feld posted this on his blog the other day: Attracting Smart People to Your Community Accelerates Entrepreneurship.   The entire time I was reading it I couldn’t help but think in global terms; Attracting Smart People to Your COUNTRY Accelerates Entrepreneurship and Grows the Economy.

I think America is at a tipping point.  We continue to embrace the things that made us great or we morph into something else.  I’m not going to share my opinion on the something else, I’ll let that be debated.   But, I am going to share my opinions on what made us great.   Simply, it’s the perception of opportunity.

The perception of opportunity attracts smart people.   It’s the single most impacting element to the rise of America as the most prosperous country in the world.  The success of America has come almost solely from the perception that it offers more opportunity than any other place in the world.  This perception has drawn millions and millions of people, immigrants, to its shores.  These immigrants have been the backbone to American prosperity.

I think this core element to Americas success is being threatened and it scares me.

With our economy shaky, Americans angry,  China, India and other countries taking center stage in the world economy, Americas place in the world is being threatened and our anti-immigration sentiment  could be the straw that breaks Americas back.

America was built on luring the best and the brightest here.  America has been the beneficiary of her own dream, but that could be beginning to change.

A few interesting statistics:

  1. Only 6% of Indian students want to stay in the country full time after graduation
  2. Only 10% of Chineses students want to stay in the country permanently after graduation
  3. Only 15% of European students want to stay permanently after graduation
  4. Over 25% of all US start-ups were started by immigrants
  5. Over 25% of US patents were filed by immigrants
  6. 60% of Engineering Doctorates were received by foreign students
  7. 50% of all Math, Computer Science , Physics and Economics Doctorates were awarded to foreign students
  8. Immigration founded US based business employed 450,000 workers and generated 52 billion dollars in revenue
  9. Google, Intel, Yahoo, and Ebay were all started by Immigrants

What happens when no foreign students want to stay in the country?

Take away 25% of all US start-ups, where does that leave us?

Take away 25% of all US Patents where does that leave us?

Let 60% of all Engineering Doctorates leave the country, what happens to our future?

Let 50% of all Math, Computer Science, Physics, and Economics Doctorates leave the country, what happens to our future?

The impact immigrants have had in this country is undeniable.  I liken it to the Yankees, get the best talent and the most talent and you win.  (this is hard to say being a Red Sox fan)  America has had this formula down pat for almost a century and we’ve benefitted from it tremendously.   Now, the fear of terrorism squeezing access to visa’s, the onerous process foreign students have to go through to stay in the country after graduation, the boiling animosity towards immigration, especially illegal immigration, the economic rise and prosperity of other countries like China and India, are all threatening the American dream of opportunity.

There is a global race on for brain power.  The winners of this race will lead the worlds economy.  America wrote the book on attracting the best and brightest.  We need to go back to the book and execute it flawlessly.  We need new policies that make it easier for immigrants to set up shop.   We need start-up visas.  We need to be more open of immigration.  We need to embrace the fact that, without immigrants, America will be a very different place, and it’s not a good place.

We can’t pick and choose what type of immigrants we want.  There is no bad immigration.  We embrace immigration or we don’t.   We need to make it easier to come here.  But more importantly, we need to ensure America is a place people want to come to.   If you think things are tough now, imagine what it would be like if no one wanted to come here anymore.

I say we create a new leading economic indicator; the desire of immigrants to come to America. We need to track it and measure it.  I think it’s a telling indicator, one that right now is heading in the wrong direction.

When immigrants no longer want to come to America, we lose.

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Vail Crushes It, Throws Down the Social Media Gauntlet

Most of you know I am an instructor at Vail.  I love vail.  It’s my favorite mountain and has been since 1989 when I moved from Boston.

Last year I wrote my opinion on why I thought Vail and other ski resorts were missing the boat in social media.  You can read it here. I gave a specific example on how resorts could improve the ski school guest experience.  Ski resorts have been slow to adopt social media and social networking and it frustrated me.

I am passionate about skiing and passionate about my home mountains (Vail and Beaver Creek.)  I wanted to see the industry become a bit more progressive and was frustrated they weren’t moving faster . . . that is until today.

Vail crushed it today with the announcement of their new social networking application EpicMix.   Epic Mix uses Vails RF scanner technology (which I’ve also written about here), to track where you are on the mountain, the total vertical you’ves skied, number of days on the mountain and it allows you to share it all with your friends via Facebook, and Twitter.  It’s frickin’ awesome!

Vail just threw down the social media guantlet for the ski industry with this move.  It combines Foursquare like checkins and accomplishment badges called “pins,” with personalized skier data, with the ability to track friends on the mountain, with the ability to share it all on Facebook and Twitter.  It changes the game.

Vail’s EpicMix changes the on mountain experience.  This is why I think it’s so killer.  Vail didn’t just create a me too social media app.  They built something specific to the skiing experience and I love it.  I ski 20 plus days a year over and above the days I teach. EpicMix will be my homebase for skiing. The idea that I can now know how much I skied, where I skied, how to find my friends who are skiing and share it all, is exactly what social media and social networking are all about

Vail rocks, it has always rocked. Vail lured me to Colorado in 1989. It enticed me into buying a mountain home near its slopes. It introduced me to ski instruction and now Vail has just given me a new mountain experience. Thanks Vail. You continue to reward me and all your guests for their loyalty. I can’t wait for ski season now!

A year ago I challenged Vail to “get engaged.” This year they did, in ways far more impressive than could have been imagined. EpicMix has set the bar for social media in the ski industry and it’s high bar!  – Well done Vail Resorts!

(EpicMix will work at all Vail Resort Mountains Keystone, Vail, Breckenridge, Heavenly, and BeaverCreek.)

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Ski Lesson’s – “Big Time”

I’m doing this in two weeks. (not the skateboarding, but the ski jump pit)  I just booked a 4 hour lesson at Woodward Copper.

“AIR” has changed a lot since I was a kid.  We’d try to build kickers in out of the way places and ski patrol would always find them and knock them down.  Now, resorts build 50 ft kickers with giant table tops in designated terrain parks.  Boy has the worm turned.

I’ve hit these big kickers before, but it’s been 7 years and it wasn’t pretty.  I figure a lesson can’t hurt.  Wiping out at 42 hurts a whole lot more than than at 22.

My goal; some sick air this year.  Can’t wait!

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Why People Don’t Get Social Networking

I was talking with someone the other day about Twitter and the importance of building a social presence.  Their response was, they see how it is important for some people, but for his line of work, it won’t work, especially Twitter.  He had an array of reasons why Twitter, Blogging and Social Networking can’t help him.   His business is too specialized he said.  It’s not going to get him any more business than he already has.

He’s probably right.  But thats not enough of a reason not to build an online presence.  It could get him a new job in the future, it could create a relationship he may need to close a deal someday, it could get him information he needed that he DIDN’T know existed.  It could do a lot of things he is unaware of today, that could help him in the future.  He is not alone.  His thinking is like that of most people I talk to who aren’t actively building and online presence.  It’s too linear.

The problem isn’t him but humanity.  We are purpose driven.

Since the cave man days our actions have been purpose driven.  If you wanted something from the guy across the cave you got up and took it from him.  If you were hungry you went out and killed some food.  Over the years we became more civilized, but we were still purpose driven.  If you wanted to talk to someone you sent a letter.  If you wanted a job, you applied for it.  Then the phone and T.V. came along.  Still driven by purpose, you knew who you were calling and why and we knew what we were going to watch on TV and when.  Communication has rarely,  if ever, been done without a direct purpose.  Everything was linear.  We played in the known.

Social media and social networks play in the unknown.  They aren’t linear.  They aren’t purpose driven.  When we tweet something, we don’t know who we are tweeting or if someone is even their to receive it.  When we blog, we don’t know who is going to read it, or who is going to comment.  We don’t know if people will like it or hate it.  We put our stuff on LinkedIn not knowing who if anyone is going to find it.  Social media is anything but purpose driven.  It’s this reason most people don’t get social media. They are thinking from the linear brain we’ve all been indoctrinated with.  If doing X doesn’t get me Y right now, I don’t have time.

Social media and social networking don’t work in a linear fashion.  They operate in a broader, less confined manner.   Users have to be OK not knowing, not getting what they want right away and able to handle getting what they didn’t expect.  Social media and social networking give life to the phrase; we dont know what we don’t know.

Many people see it as a waste of time.  To the linear mind it is.  It’s not like a phone call or and email.  It’s not like getting up and walking across the cave and getting what you want.  What it does do, quite often is give you what you didn’t know you wanted and many times that’s far more valuable.

It’s easy to focus on getting what you want and thinking in a linear fashion.  It’s measurable.   It also requires you block everything out.  Social media and social networking are different, they get you what you didn’t know you wanted and that’s a big deal.

Social networking and social media expand your world.  They make you more accessible, they provide more information, they extend your influence.  If those aren’t reason enough to “get” social media it must not be linear enough.

Social media and social networking have a place, it’s just going to take time to change 10,000 years of thinking.  It’s time to get out of the cave.

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How to Build an Accurate Sales Forecast

I gave my two cents earlier this week on why sales and earnings forecasts fail.   They fail because of lack culture NOT because of lack of smarts.

Chris Waldron called out culture in his comment on the post.  I think Chris is right.

There are only 3 things needed to build an accurate forecast; data, interpretation and culture.  That’s it.

If building an accurate forecast is important to your business, start with building a culture of reality.  Reality is at the core.  An organization that confronts reality accepts what the information is telling them and plans accordingly.  There is no King James bible interpretation going on.  Their is no discarding of the data because someone doesn’t like it. It is what it is.  If the data is telling you business is going to slide, accept it, build an accurate forecast around it, figure out away to minimize and move on.

If forecasting is an exercise to support a predetermined number, it’s not forecasting and a culture of reality doesn’t exist.  Don’t waste anyones time, just give out the numbers and move on.

A culture of reality is critical to accurate forecasting.  Allowing the organization to accurately interpret the data to arrive at the most accurate representation of future revenue is key.

That brings us to the data.  I’m a gut guy, so this is hard for me.  However, I accept it and dig in.  An accurate forecast needs data.  It needs:

  1. Historical information
  2. Editorial dialog
  3. Customer data
  4. Competitive data
  5. Trend analysis
  6. Industry analysis
  7. Company data:
    1. Support analysis
    2. resource availability
    3. Product availability
    4. New product development
    5. New product availability
    6. Marketing plans
    7. Customer satisfaction
    8. etc
  8. Expected Macro Economic Data
    1. Consumer Spending
    2. GDP Growth
    3. Consumer Confidence
    4. Interest Rates
    5. Inflation
    6. Housing prices
    7. Government regulations/intervention
    8. etc

All of this info and more can influence the numbers.  Building a forecast without all the data, internal and external, marco and micro is a hollow effort.

Use the data, it’s the foundation.

If the culture is there and the data is there, interpretation is the special sauce.  It’s what differentiates the professionals from the amateurs.  Interpreting the data to create an accurate forecast is an art.  There is no science to it.  The best people I’ve ever seen can look at the data and with an amazing accuracy determine the impact to the forecast from the data.   It’s a little bit experience, it’s good data, it’s knowledge of their world and it’s a little bit gut.

I purposely chose not to be perscriptive in this post, because I don’t think forecasting is all that hard.  It’s only hard when the culture allowing for good ones doesn’t exist.  Build a culture of reality, get good data and learn to interpret it.  The forecast will come out fine — and by that I mean ACCURATE!

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They are Called Spoils for a Reason – They Spoil

The mechanic who became a mechanic to join the union for the benefits, is rarely a good mechanic.

The aspiring actor who moves to Hollywood to be famous, can’t cry on demand and almost never makes it.

The person who gets into sales to make the big money can’t be counted on to make quota.

The kid who takes up golf to be the next Tiger Woods (OK, Phil Mickleson) can’t correct his slice and won’t make the H.S. Golf team.

The singer who auditions for American Idol because they want to be the next Mariah Carey has zero range and almost always gets their butt handed to them from Simon.

The person who wants to be CEO to live the CEO lifestyle and be the king at his H.S. reunion, can’t lead and won’t get out of the mailroom.

Becoming famous, the CEO lifestyle, the big money, being the next Tiger Woods or Mariah Carey are all the spoils of hard work.  They are what you get after years of hard work becoming the best at what you do.  They are the spoils of success.

The spoils aren’t a reason to do something.  A focus on what you get at the end never yields results.  A passion for what you do does.

The great mechanic doesn’t need a union.

The amazing actor who can cry on demand becomes famous.

The sales person who loves selling always makes quota.

The kid who is obsessed with golf and sneaks on to the course in the dark to hit balls becomes the next Tiger Woods

The singer who does everything with headphones on and is passionate about music becomes the next Mariah.

The person obsessed with growing a business, working with people and understanding finance, ends up living the CEO lifestyle.

Getting the spoils comes from focusing on everything EXCEPT the spoils.   Focusing on the spoils is what spoils the dream.

Focus on the trip, focus on the journey and the spoils will come.

Because it will make you rich, famous, secure, popular, or attractive is never a good enough reason.  Because you love it, want to do it everyday and want to be the best there has ever been is.

The spoils do just that — spoil.  Do it because you love it, not for what you’ll get.

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When It’s Time for a Startup to Hire a Sales Guy (Gal)

Hiring a professional sales person can be a stressful event for a start up.  Hire too early and waste lots of money on a sales person who is unable to drive any revenue, hire too late and risk leaving money on the table or worse losing to the competition.

To figure out if a start-up is ready for a sales person or team depends on 3 simple questions.

1)   Is the product or service ready for prime time, can it create a market or can it create demand for itself?

2)   Is there market demand?  Does the market want the product or service?

3)   Does the organization have the sales expertise to execute on the above?

Determining if it’s time to hire a sales person or team is a simple if/then.

If the product is ready and can create demand for itself and you don’t have the sales expertise, It’s time to hire sales.

If the market demand is there, if the market wants what you sell and you don’t have the expertise in house, then it’s time to hire sales.

If there is market demand AND the product or service is ready for prime time and can create demand for itself, then hire a shit load of sales people and fast.

If the product is not ready for primetime yet there is market demand then try to develop the expertise in house, use the CEO, founders etc.  It’s a business development process until the product is ready.

If the product is ready and can create demand for itself, but the market demand isn’t there then hire a REALLY, REALLY good Maverick.

If the product or service isn’t there, and the market doesn’t know it wants your product or service yet then don’t hire anyone.  Get the product out the door.

There are only 3 things that can sell a product or service, the product itself, market demand or sales.  That’s it.   Nothing else can move the needle.

To determine if its time to hire a sales person figure out what if/then statement fits, then go.

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Bad Forecasts Aren’t a Mistake

The New York Times had a great op-ed piece today about companies missing forecasts.   The premise – CFO’s and CEO’s are over confident in their beliefs.

I completely agree with this and think the premise can be extended even further to sales people.   You can usually see this “hubris” in sales when sales people are well connected with the customer.  The customer gives them their forecast, their expected sales for the next year and the sales person takes it to heart.

They believe their relationship with the customer and their knowledge of their “business” is spot on.  This confidence drives faulty forecasts.

The New York Times does a good job explaining this, there is nothing I can add.   That being said, I think there is another reason for faulty forecasts — forecasts have never been expected to be accurate.

Forecasting HAS never been an exercise in accuracy.  Forecasting has always been an exercise in articulating how much growth is going to be had not an authentic expression of what is really going to happen.

Nobody wants to hear your going to lose money.  No one wants to hear business is declining.  No one wants to hear that the numbers are falling.  Therefore, no one is allowed to forecast the truth.   REALITY is something forecasts omit 90% of the time.  Sales and corporate forecasts are marketing tools designed to build confidence in the company, the division or the sales person.   They are rarely a fair representation of reality.

Know one wants to hear the truth — unless it is good.

An unprecedented number of companies missed 2009 earnings.  Why?  In my opinion none of them forecasted a decline in business from 2008 to 2009, despite all the economic signs and information suggesting 2009 would be brutal.   There was more than enough information in the fall of 2008 that suggested for most companies growth was an impossibility and a decline was most probable.

Rather than embracing the data and building a forecast and plan to minimize the decline, most companies moved forward with completely unrealistic growth forecasts.

This intolerance of negative forecasts permeates all the way to sales.   Sales forecasting is rooted in the expectations of growth, not accurate forecasting.

If sales teams want to improve productivity, improve forecasting accuracy and minimize surprises, the culture of forecasting needs to change.  It needs to move from telling people what they want to hear to telling people what is actually happening.

If your company or sales team has never forecasted negative sales numbers yet has had a decline in revenue, that’s the first sign your company doesn’t forecast but promotes. If you have sales people or executives who have put forth compelling data based arguments for a decline in revenue or sales and they were marginalized or removed, it’s another sign you don’t forecast, you promote.

Real forecasting uses data, the good and the bad, to determine the most accurate prediction of future revenue.   It’s that simple.

If some forecasts are deemed OK and others aren’t, reality is quickly being flushed from the process.  When that happens just ask the powers that be, what number they want to see and give it them.

It will save everyone a lot of time, time your going to need to figure out how you can make that completely unrealistic forecast.

There is no such thing as a good forecast or a bad forecast . . . just an accurate forecast.

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