Comments on: Who Needs Data, I Already Know

By: Keenan

Keenan — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:41:24 +0000

"However, the downside of failure was so large. . . "

This is exactly why I wrote the post. Like your assessment, most people evaluate the decision on "IF" you don't get it. But you can't do that. You have to factor in the probability of going for it AND stopping them. You can't, not factor in the probability of getting it with the probability of stopping them should you not converting. When you do that, their is a higher probability of winning vs punting and stopping them.

Our humanity and emotions break it down differently and therefore give us a false sense of reality and truth. It's a good discussion

By: Jeff

Jeff — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:15:57 +0000

Jim,
Its tough to say whether I agree with the decision now that the play has happened. I didn't see it live. But I get why he did it. Gain 2 yards and the game is over. However, the downside of failure was so large (Manning with the ball at the 30) that I lean towards disagreeing with the decision to go for it. I also think the play call was incorrect. If you're going to go for it, the pattern has to go across the first down marker, not right at it.

By: Keenan

Keenan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:50:52 +0000

emotion and the desire to be right are strong motivators, they get
sales people everyday

By: Keenan

Keenan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:45:28 +0000

Good question Jeff, I don't know if these specific to the Pats and the
moment, or broader against an entire season. Also, don't know how you
can build for probability against a particular person or persons.

Do you agree with the decision?

By: Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:36:05 +0000

It all depends on what data was used to get these numbers. How was the 60% chance of converting arrived at? Was it based on the Patriots past conversion rates? How about factoring in how often the Colts stop 4th and 2. And what about injuries. The Patriot may be better converting 4th and 2 when they have a full squad including Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. They did not play. So stats do tell you something, but it is quite often what is happening in the moment that is most important.

By: Bill Rice

Bill Rice — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:37:53 +0000

Jim,

I think you hit it on the head–the data often too complex. And our mental short-cuts often take us into the easy solution or the one most familiar, not necessarily the most probable to yield success.

Time to make it a little easier to get and process that data I think…where are those sales performance numbers???

By: Renbor

Renbor — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:50:09 +0000

Jim,

I think you data and conclusions are right, but many will not believe you mostly for the reasons you state. But if you can get past the emotion, your posting can help a lot of sales folks to do more.

Tibor